Category Archives: Film

‘It’ – A Few Quick Notes

Preface: the below are a slight expansion of the notes I was attempted to jot down on my commute home post-view. Please forgive the informality. 

Theatre ExperiencePacked house. 500-person auditorium 80%+ filled. Felt more at-capacity than likes of Logan, Guardians 2, Wonder Woman, Spider-Man, etc. for debut run (7pm Thurs) this year (Dunkirk more packed, but far different situation). 

Should one expect large crowds opening weekend? The horror genre is historically front-loaded so crowd density isn’t unheard of early-on. HOWEVER word-of-mouth should be strong enough to push anyone on the fence into a seat. Will be far easier to get into afternoon than it will the later evening shows. Fortunately we now live in an era of advanced assigned seating. Audience was involved but polite. Only saw one phone at an inappropriate time. Many audible gasps and whispered curses. 

Audience Reaction: Not to be compared with likes of the Sunday AM Senior crowd in early January nor some enthused fangirl whooping at the end of Wonder Woman. There was applause of genuine audience satisfaction!

On the film itself:  Using real kids/early teens definitely beneficial. All well-played parts. Big laughs/enjoyment at the how un-PC a group of boys on bikes can be. Just enough character development to keep things moving though the overall pace felt a little slow at times.

I’m not sure how Pennywise actually works? Is he actually a character? Almost no development. Was it assumed that audience should be familiar with some source material? (Never read book, been 22+yrs since seeing other movie) So he made no sense to me. Still threw out quite a few fright smack-downs. Mostly terrifying just to look at (“mostly” because some CGI looked cheap – detracted from what might have been). The most terrifying parts of the movie were certainly the ones that didn’t involve the clown.

Overall Even the slightest interest in the horror genre should be enough for one to justify the price of admission for a fantastic theatrical experience and excuse to tune out worldly distractions for a couple of hours.

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Oscars: One of the Better ‘Best Pic’ Fields in Years

The Academy did a pretty damn good job this year. The only nominee that doesn’t align with my personal Top 10 was Bridge of Spies and even that still has Spielberg+Coen Bros+Hanks+Cold War+USA! USA! aka deserves its nom.

My projections were off a little bit. I had a total of 6 “LIKELY” nominations based on historical trends regarding guild accolades. All 6 were nominated. My next three (Compton, Carol, and Sicario) missed in favor of Room and Brooklyn, two films that were right on the cusp. I would guess that Sicario landed in place 3-5 on many tech-heavy ballots for a near-miss with something like 4.7% of the vote (when you need 5%). Similar story with CarolCompton took a nice guild ride but really wasn’t good enough all-around to have a place here (lowest Rotten Tomatoes Top Critics % score and point rating of my 13 real players).

The Good News

Despite favorable opinion of the picture itself, I had doubts about A24 being able to keep Room in the game against the deeper pockets of the major studios. This is a HUGE victory for independent film.

Brooklyn is equally wonderful. Boasting the highest Top Critic RT score of the year (the ultra-rare perfect 100 from 38 critics) Brooklyn lacked the resources its parent studio paid to campaign the larger Martian and Revenant. Further evidence of secondary attention? It’s the only Best Pic nominee without its own Twitter handle. #BrooklynMovie. Worthy of note: Brooklyn director John Crowley was originally attached to helm Carol. He dropped out because of scheduling conflicts between the two projects. How relieved is that guy today? Fox outbid Weinstein Co (Carol‘s distributor) for Brooklyn‘s rights at last year’s Sundance. It’s a huge day for the studio since they now hold 37.5% of the Best Pic field.

Mad Max actually made it! How awesome is that?

Snubs?

Aaron Sorkin was the heavy favorite to win Adapted Screenplay and didn’t even get nominated. That field’s now wide open. If Sorkin still manages to pull down the WGA win I’ll be extremely confused. Also worth mentioning is the exclusion of Ridley Scott in favor of Room‘s Lenny Abrahamson. This is less a case of Ridley being snubbed  and more that Abrahamson deserved the acknowledgement. Tom Hardy was probably the last man in for The RevenantInside Out deserves to be part of the overall convo but I wouldn’t really call it a “snub” as it never really had a chance to actually win the field.

Problems?

Diversity. #OscarSoWhite will repeat as a hot convo this year. Again, this is a systemic problem and the Oscars are merely internal trade awards that reflect the current industry. A nom for Elba could have quelled this a bit but the Supporting Actor race is a feeding frenzy and any combo of 10 dudes could have made it. Netflix is also new to the game which put Elba at an immediate disadvantage. Will Smith was bested by 5 stronger performances. Compton’s not an all-around GREAT film. Creed‘s Michael B. Jordan remains too young to spar with the likes of Leo and Damon (in the eyes of the Academy).

Perhaps a further convo for a later date, but I think the Academy needs to combine the Actor and Actress categories as one. Why are actors the only branch that  segregates awards on the basis of gender? Aren’t we beyond that?

My Pre-Announcement Predictions: 2016 Best Pic Nominations:
Spotlight Spotlight
The Big Short The Big Short
The Revenant The Revenant
Bridge of Spies Bridge of Spies
The Martian The Martian
Mad Max: Fury Road Mad Max: Fury Road
Carol Brooklyn
Straight Outta Compton Room
Sicario

Oscar’s Likely Best Pics (Based on Historical Data)

There are many methods used to project tomorrow’s Best Pic nominations. Let’s try a logical approach while dropping a few numbers into the thought process:

  • 5-10: The number of titles AMPAS (Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences) will nominate in total. All members vote to nominate Best Picture via preferential ballot listing favorites one through five.
  • 6,440: Estimated total voting body of AMPAS. 6,124 members as of December ’14 plus 322 invitees in June ’15 (assuming 98% invitation acceptance).
  • 586: 1st choice votes needed to secure a nomination (9.1% of ballots cast, assuming full and correct participation).
  • 322: Total votes needed to reach the 5% minimum required to receive a nomination.
  • 500: approx number of voters shared by BAFTA (British Academy of Film and Television Arts) and AMPAS (7.76% total vote).

Other heavy indicators to take into account:

-Since AMPAS expanded the Best Pic field (for the 2010 awards) films that were nominated for a BAFTA also earned Oscar nominations 93.3% of the time (the only exceptions being Drive and Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy in the tumultuous 2012 race).

-90% of DGA (Director’s Guild of America) nominees over the past decade have gone on to receive a nomination (only Girl With the Dragon Tattoo missed since expansion).

-The PGA (Producer’s Guild of America) has included 85.5% of eventual Oscar contenders among their 10 annual nominees since field expansion.

As such, anything that’s nominated by BAFTA, DGA, and PGA should be firm LOCKS. SpotlightThe Big Short, and The Revenant are therefor in.

Over the past decade, no film has made the BAFTA/PGA shortlists and lost-out on an Oscar nom. So even though the A-Team (Spielberg and Hanks) will likely miss out on their respective fields’ mentions, we should feel free to mark Bridge of Spies as VERY LIKELY.

While The Martian and Mad Max: Road Fury may have missed out on SAG’s top prize, they’ve been nominated by other guilds/societies whose field-related voters account for over 40% of the Academy. Cinematography, Editing, Sound, Production Design, and VFX really add up. The Martian will feel like a natural fit for many voters with Ridley, Damon, baller cast, etc. And while a hard-action genre pic may seem an odd fit for the annals of film history, Mad Max truly exceeded expectations in every possible aspect of production. Both titles are LIKELY.

With 6 pics marked for ‘LIKELY’ and higher, who might be the last 4, if any, to make it in? Straight Outta ComptonCarolBrooklyn, and Sicario seem the most probable. RoomSteve Jobs, and Trumbo are all carried by strong performances that may not be enough to get them in. Hateful Eight, Beasts of No Nation, and Ex Machina all seem like far-reaches at this point. Unfortunately, Inside Out just doesn’t seem to have enough power behind it to compete for Best Pic this year.

Compton received SAG, PGA, and WGA nominations and gives the Academy a chance to tout their continued “diversification” push. Carol may have missed out on a PGA, but Todd Haynes is probably the 6th-place director and Blanchett/Mara will get a lot of love from the Actors division. The thematic material and prestige should contrast well against a populist-laden group.

As if enough action/thrillers weren’t represented already, I’m going to include Sicario because of its PGA/WGA noms and technical recognition. It’s also likely to be one of two movies from this year (along with The Big Short) that we view  down the road as a representation of the era’s sociological standing. Too bad El Chapo couldn’t have been found a week earlier…

With nine spots filled, I’m thinking that Brooklyn comes up short of the 5% needed to qualify. Don’t get me wrong, the movie’s flawless. Easily one of the 10 (if not 5) best pictures of the year. But Fox already has 2 clydesdales in the race so Brooklyn seems to be fighting for nothing more than scraps. Saoirse Ronan’s a shoe-in nod for Actress but I just don’t see that being enough to separate it from other thesp-focused pics like…

Room seems to be hurting from having a distributor that may not be big enough to play this game effectively. I’d still count Brie Larson as the Actress front-runner and young Jacob Tremblay’s very impressive (he should be considered for lead, not supporting).

Universal tried to treat Steve Jobs like a shiny new iPhone model when it should have staggered the release to build word-of-mouth. Still,  I think it’s one of the more inventive pics of the year. Danny Boyle straight killing the game.

My projections in order of projected ballot preference (which we’ll never see the real results for but whatevs):

  1. Spotlight
  2. The Big Short
  3. The Revenant
  4. Bridge of Spies
  5. The Martian
  6. Mad Max: Fury Road
  7. Straight Outta Compton
  8. Carol
  9. Sicario

Just missing: Brooklyn, Room
Damn politics: Steve Jobs, Inside Out

 

The Revenant: Leo’s First Oscar

I’ll make this as plain as I can: Leonardo DiCaprio will win The Academy Award for Best Actor this year. It had been suggested as the “extremely likely” outcome for months but having now seen The Revenant, I’ll guarantee it. It’s the safest bet for all of the Oscars at this very moment.

Preseason, Leo’s only competition came from Fassbender and Redmayne. Universal hurt Fass’ chance when they flubbed the release pattern of Steve Jobs. The Danish Girl just isn’t buzzing enough and the the Academy’s OWM (Old White Men) won’t acknowledge the youth of Redmayne twice in a row.

The rest of the movie? Cinematic excellence any way you dice it. Some might find the pace or length to be a bit trying (sorry, you’re wrong). I was pretty tired when I headed into the theatre for the 157 minute trek and thought I may need to rain-check the whole thing during the trailers. But my eyes didn’t feel heavy for a single moment of the film’s run.

The Revenant is well worth your effort and the price of admission as it offers many things I’d hate to think of seeing on a smaller screen (ew).

Emmanuel Lubezski’s as good as he’s ever been. I found myself counting shot-lengths up to “wtf?” on numerous occasions. Chivo’s  cinematography will undoubtedly win an impressive third Oscar in three years (a feat achieved only by Costume Designer Edith Head from 1949-1951). The composition and execution of the action sequences need to be seen to be believed. Iñárritu will win Best Director for having the balls to pull something like this off with almost entirely natural lighting. Hell, he’d probably get it for blocking alone. This is what genius artistry looks like.

David Lean said that you should be able to cut any frame out of a roll of film, frame it, and hang it on the wall. His sentiment certainly stands true here. While we’re on the subject of Lean, Revenant‘s avalanche shot (I don’t even get to use the word “segment” or “sequence” here) echoes the finale of The Bridge on the River Kwai as an impressive one-off stunt that would have taken days to get a second chance at. Props must be given for doing the real thing. Iñárritu and Lubezski seem to be running out of new challenges.

It seems that Spotlight is currently leading the pack in the Best Pic race. While it may be impeccably executed, it’s basically a by-the-book stage play set in front of a camera. So what The Revenant may lack from a standout screenplay it overcompensates for with bold visual imagery and remarkable performance. It’s simply a more worthwhile cinematic experience than Spotlight.

SPOILER (not really) CONCLUSION:

If by the end of the film an AMPAS voter were to have even the faintest notion that someone other than Leo deserved this year’s Oscar, a final pleading stare straight into the lens will surely convince them otherwise. He’ll probably buy cars for Chivo/Iñárritu afterwards.

Review – Star Wars: The Force Awakens

To parallel the dichotomy of  our favorite “hokey religion,” I will address the The Force Awakens from two perspectives. How are you to recognize the good side from the bad? You will know!

The Good
Much of being an effective director comes from solid casting. So from that notion, J.J. Abrams did an excellent job of directing this movie.

Daisey Ridley is a very rare Mary Poppins: she’s practically perfect in every way. She displays the rare thespian gift of physical charisma. This does not speak to her corporeal beauty, but rather to the notion that she carries herself in a believable manner for this universe. For contrast, this was problematic for George Lucas/Hayden Christensen/Natalie Portman (and even someone like Sam Jackson) in the prior installments. Sure, Christensen played the “great warrior” aspect well, but both he and Portman were difficult to settle your eyes upon as they never seemed to appear comfortable. Ridley truly commands a viewer’s gaze within the frame.

Harrison Ford kills the quips. Chewie rocks his best role yet. Oscar Isaac was great. John Boyega was good even though Finn seemed fairly underdeveloped (perhaps befitting of a character raised to be nothing but a stormtrooper). Adam Driver was a very convincing Kylo Ren. A big highlight comes from his sorrowful admission to the anguish caused by the widening spectrum of The Force’s influence. It feels very much akin to the addictive nature The One Ring holds over Frodo Baggins.

But the best new character in Star Wars isn’t played by any actor. I was admittedly very skeptical of BB-8 before seeing the movie, but the droid rolls as a wonderful merging of WALL-E’s mannerisms and color to the voice of EVE.

OBLIGATORY SPOILER WARNING FROM HERE ON OUT

There were maybe three moments that really nailed me with a hard case of The Feels. The first was the reveal of the Millennium Falcon, a character in it’s own right. The second was Rey’s flashback/premonition induced by Anakin’s lightsaber. And though it brought to mind the best scene from all of Harry Potter, my heart skipped a beat when the lower corridors of Cloud City appeared in her vision. The third really great moment involves, naturally, the Son of Skywalker. Having spent the majority of his career as a prominent voice actor, the idea that Mark Hamill wouldn’t say a word during this installment is really quite amusing. The look on his face nearly brought tears to my eyes. Anguish, disappointment, defeat, yet hope and redemption? ¡Increíble!

But again, there were only three moments here for me. Which brings me to…

The Bad

I’ve had several days to sit on this and really mull it over. So now I’m just gonna say it: The Force Awakens ranks #7 out of all 7 Star Wars movies in terms of story strength. That’s right. It’s worse than all three members of the Prequel Trilogy (PT).

Eps 1-3 have MANY flaws (others might use terms that are less sparing). But the overarching story of a prophesied Christ of the Force and his transformation into a principal for genocide remains quite compelling. Additional themes of note include: the dangers of religious dogma, the faults in a merged church and state, and a caution to the strength of deregulated financial institutions. We also received a solid glance at a larger galaxy with a better understanding for how The Old Republic operated in the heyday of the Guardians of Peace and Justice. So on paper, the PT was actually pretty awesome. It was just terribly executed.

Opposite is true for The Force Awakens, a bad story executed reasonably well. Abrams/Kasdan like to talk about how they wanted these new movies to be reminiscent of the Original Trilogy (OT) which is naturally admirable. What they didn’t tell us was that they would take the safest route possible to barf out a lackadaisical fucking reboot of A New Hope. Did they really think that Star Wars loyalists would miss this?

Good guy hides crucial item in droid that’s very important to Leia’s team. Droid evades bad guys. Fresh-faced desert-dweller picks up droid. Leaves planet in Millennium Falcon with new friends narrowly escaping bad guys. Oh and there’s also a bar/opium den involving Han + Chewie + aliens. Later: new friend’s info helps Leia’s team figure out how to blow up a planet-destroying superweapon. Then X-Wings and TIE Fighters fight and the planet-destroying superweapon gets blow’d up.

HOLY SHIT ARE YOU SERIOUS? This is is the exact same fucking story as Ep 4! I can forgive many many things but a DEATH STAR for the third time in four sequential chapters reflects incompetence at every level. Disney/Kennedy/Abrams/Kasdan had EVERY SINGLE RESOURCE at their disposal yet this was their Plan A. Did the backroom monkeys look at the numbers and go “well it worked twice before. So let’s just…use…it…again?” COME ON!

 

“But dude, it played to the nostalgia just so well.” I’m sorry, but that’s just unacceptable. If you want nostalgia, go pop A New Hope into your VCR. Bringing the OT’s characters back should be enough to fulfill your sentimental quota. Giving the characters funny one-liners that reference a former era does the same job. A sequel to Return of the Jedi with the same cast should already be a shoe-in for success yet NOTHING these writers could derive from the Lucasfilm Holocron inspired a new course. Instead, Disney chose a plot device that was too dated for even their own amusement park ride. Do you feel insulted yet? Because all they did was sell you the original Star Tours.

“I know audiences feed on crap, but I cannot believe we are so lacking that we cannot dish it up to them with some trace of originality.”-Darryl F. Zanuck.

Star Wars is the great American Hollywood success story. It set the standard for rewarding innovation. So where Disney/Kennedy/Abrams/Kasdan had the chance to take bigger risks with broader unseen concepts, they instead chose the safer road akin to The Avengers (which was totally forgettable other than the one moment).

 

“Well most people don’t seem to agree with you. Look how much money it made.”  I clearly do not share their optimistic appraisal of the situation.  The large majority of real Star Wars fans are grown adults that should be able to tell the difference between an homage and a blatant hackjob ripoff. Take a peak out the Star Wars window there and tell me what you see. Because there’s a 42.9% chance of a fucking DEATH STAR!

Disney/Abrams thought they could separate themselves from the PT with the inclusion of familiar characters while touting the construction of practical sets/effects. The critical praise seems to reflect success there. But I am most displeased by their apparent lack of progress because they half-assed the most important part of a movie, the story.

I gave pause back in November to the idea that George Lucas’ influence would no longer have any bearing on the future films. And it turns out my suspicions were valid. You know what this movie could have used? Someone behind it with an original thought in their brain. I’m not saying Lucas needs to actually pen the dialogue. But Kasdan clearly wasn’t capable of bringing a relevant new concept to the forefront.

“But Han Solo died. That was unexpected and fresh and dark and cool and stuff.” I can admit that I enjoyed the moment and dialogue between Han and Ren. But the death was all-but-assured as soon as Episode 7 was announced. The concept of a combo Solo death/Luke disappearance dates back to ROTJ. Harrison Ford has talked about his Solo death wish for years.

“Well what more could you really want? J.J.’s a real fan that made a movie for the fans.”

Part of me wonders if Abrams and Kasdan actually watched the original trilogy again prior to shooting this pic. In Awakens, Rey questions whether the Falcon was the “the ship that made The Kessel Run in 14 parsecs?” Ford petulantly responds with “12 PARSECS!” The audience laughs. But it’s not a funny moment. It’s sad. Because The Falcon didn’t make The Kessel Run in 12 parsecs. It made it in “less than 12 parsecs.” And while that may seem like a small detail, how hard could it have been to get right? Again, they have EVERY POSSIBLE RESOURCE available to them. “Sorry Harrison, the line is actually ‘LESS than 12.'” Or “Harrison, can we do it again but where you yell-out ‘ELEVEN-AND-A-HALF’ instead?” Strive for excellence goddamnit. And since I’m on a Nerd Rant, did Incom and Sienar Fleet Systems get exclusive military contracts that forced all other ship designs from commission in the 30 years since Return of the Jedi?  I feel like I’m taking crazy pills here.

These types of things represent a lack of commitment and sincerity that Disney should have been capable of handling. I get that at the end of the day it’s about money and generating additional revenue streams from an expanding fan base. So I’m not even gonna discuss TFA’s other weak points like Carrie Fisher’s awkward delivery (hurts to say that because she’s my first bae) or the unnecessary CGI MIB/Prometheus tentacle monsters. Shall we skip my tirade on the picture’s inability to explain anything that’s happened since ROTJ? But bro, it’ll all be explained in a future movie.” Shut the fuck up, Donnie. Just because it’s part of a series doesn’t mean you get to treat it like a television episode. There are rules. It should still be able to stand alone and yet now I feel compelled to read the novelization (let’s be real, we all know I was going to anyways).

George Lucas took us to a galaxy far, far away. Disney takes us shopping with Basic Bitches on Main Street, USA. I wanted a story from someone with a PHD in Star Wars, not something written by a 100-level course showoff. The ball has now been firmly passed into Rian Johnson’s court. And while I don’t particularly care for Brick, Brothers Bloom is tremendously under-appreciated and Looper’s obviously sick. So my faith remains unwavering in a delivery from the repetitive evil found in The Force Awakens. That’s some unoriginal ratchet shit right there.

 

Spotlight: Leading the Best Pic Race?

Don’t get me wrong. Spotlight doesn’t pretend to be anything other than what it is: a poignant investigative drama featuring a flawless ensemble performance. Yet it still runs as monochromatic as a newspaper feature.

There are complaints that Steve Jobs took too man creative liberties. Which means Spotlight stands on the opposite side of the spectrum. An audience could believe that the series of events surrounding the 2002 Boston Globe feature played out exactly as depicted on screen. So any sense of shock or discovery I though I might feel had already been spent back when the stories first broke. That doesn’t mean the movie’s boring. It just feels too familiar.

Following the recent less-than-perfect reviews for Revenant (it’s still gonna play hard) and questionable (or bad) reviews for JoySpotlight seems to be out-front in the Best Pic race. But should it be celebrated as the year’s definitive apex of our finest art form? I’d say no. A Best Pic nom? Certainly. And I expect the cast (particularly Ruffalo) and screenplay team to see continued recognition.

I still need to see check out Brooklyn and Carol. And, as mentioned in an earlier feature, I get the sneaking suspicion that Anamolisa could make a late surprise surge (if enough word gets out). But at this point, Steve Jobs and Room are the more vibrant, enthralling, and imaginative prospects to stand atop the best of film in 2015.

Do the NBR’s Best Pics Translate Into Oscar Nominations?

On Monday the National Board of Review teed-off the Oscar season’s playoffs by announcing their 10 Best Pictures of the Year. With more populist pics than in recent years, just how influential/accurate are the NBR’s selections?

While their choices certainly serve as easy marketing decor (“One of the National Board of Review’s Best Pictures of the Year!”), the snowball effect is rather difficult to measure. Do AMPAS members actually look to the NBR list before penning 5 favs for nomination?

While their influence as tastemakers may be questionable, the idea that studios throw resources their way for the occasional screenings/discussion acknowledges that the NBR are at-least the first ones out of the gate.

So where do we draw the line between primary influence vs. simply choosing logical choices? Let’s do some math!

The Oscars expanded the Best Pic field for movies released in 2009 from exactly 5 noms to between 5 and 10 (varying due to the preferential balloting process). Since the expansion, the titles on NBR’s short-list have served as predictors for 34 of the 55 films (or 62%) that would eventually receive top Oscar nominations. And while the NBR’s top pic last year (A Most Violent Year) didn’t even get nominated for an Oscar, the eventual Oscar winner has also made their list 87% of the time over the last 75 years.

But NBR’s overall nomination prediction rate has slipped with the increase in the number of AMPAS nominations. From 2000-2008, the NBR’s list truly missed predicting a nomination only twice (Erin Brokovich and The Queen). The other ten missed picks were likely due to December releases they weren’t given the privilege (read into that however you want) of seeing. This gave them an effective net forecast rate of 94%. Since then, they’ve had 15 blatant misses for a rate of 69%.

So how does affect the field going forward? What’s still to-be-released that the NBR hasn’t seen? The Revenant and Joy are likely sure-things. The Big Short features a heavy ensemble cast, relevant topic, and solid early buzz. And while unorthodox, Charlie Kaufman’s  Anomalisa could squeak in if Paramount plays their screener/screening game TO THE MAX (12/30 release means public buzz won’t exist in-time).

What might have already been released that the NBR’s blatantly left out?  Steve Jobs, while a commercial miss, was expertly crafted on all fronts making it very attractive to the guilds. Carol and Brooklyn have big performances, great reviews, and slow buzz-building distribution models synonymous with the successful arthouse Oscar push. They may be competing with each other for votes though.

Who falls away in these situations? Straight Outta Compton won’t make it. If I have to choose between Mad Max and Hateful Eight (may also compete w/each other for votes), I’d say Eight sits out in the cold but it’s very unlikely that either will represent at least 5% of the Academy’s ballot first-choices. Sicario would make my personal list, but it has too much working against it to stay in the convo. Disney’s Oscar track record is notoriously non-existent and a likely push for Inside Out should also leave Bridge of Spies behind. Creed truly is the darkhorse that may continue to play well enough to stay in the convo.

The NBR’s never missed more than four of the nominations in a single year. Yet if AMPAS nominates 10 Best Pics this year, it may be the first year with 5 misses. But hey, this is a GREAT problem to have for the industry to have. It only means there’s been a larger quota for quality in 2015.

2015: NBR’s Top 10 vs My Predicted Oscar Noms
(For the now. There will undoubtedly be momentum shifts )

National Board of Review Top 10 AMPAS (Oscar) Best Pics Noms
1 Spotlight 1 The Revenant
2 Room 2 Spotlight
3 The Martian 3 Room
4 Inside Out 4 Steve Jobs
5 Creed 5 Carol or Brooklyn
6 Mad Max: Fury Road 6 The Martian
7 Sicario 7 Joy
8 The Hateful Eight *8 Inside Out
9 Bridge of Spies *9 The Big Short
10 Straight Outta Compton *10 Creed

*=Would make list if 10 nominees make it.
-(Yes, I get that I’m cheating with Carol/Brooklyn and I’m still anxious to see both as I’ve heard nothing but amazing things.)